Bangladesh’s economy maneuvered through significant headwinds in fiscal year 2024–25, with growth slowing for the second consecutive year and structural transformation stalling, according to provisional estimates released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Real GDP is projected at 3.97%, aligning with the 3.9% forecast for Asia in 2025—a signal of resilience rather than dynamism amid persistent volatility. Economic stability, not growth, defined FY25. The government forecasts a gradual rebound with GDP growth expected to accelerate to 5.0% in FY25, rising by 50 basis points annually through FY28, as outlined in its Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework. Inflation, at 9.05% in May, is projected to decelerate to 6.5% in FY26, followed by steady 50-basis point reductions annually over the next three years. Bangladesh benefits from a confluence of favourable external conditions—soft global commodity prices, a weak US dollar, low interest rates, ample foreign exchange liquidity, and stable energy supplies. However, experts caution that sustaining growth requires more than external calm. Reliable industrial peace, assured transport logistics, and a credible macro-structural policy regime are essential—and none can be taken for granted in the current geopolitical climate. Globally, the intensification of trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions presents serious downsides. Yet, these disruptions can open opportunities. As US tariffs, particularly those targeting China, remain high, Bangladesh stands to benefit by capturing relocated textile and garment orders diverted from China. Success in this space has put Bangladesh on the radar of foreign investors reassessing supply chains. With Least Developed Country graduation expected in 2026, the urgency to adapt is growing. Bangladesh must develop a proactive trade and industrial policy strategy to capitalize on these shifting dynamics and ensure the momentum isn’t lost post-graduation . However, amid these shifts, caution is warranted. The economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, including fluctuations in global oil or commodity markets, and regional disruptions. Careful calibration of macroeconomic levers—exchange rate flexibility, fiscal adjustment, tax reforms—and reforms in logistics, labour law, and the financial sector are needed to enhance resilience and competitiveness. The message is clear: Bangladesh’s economy is performing a delicate balancing act—staying afloat amidst global uncertainty, seizing emerging trade opportunities, and laying the groundwork for future structural transformation. The next few years will test whether this balancing act can evolve into sustained, inclusive growth.
