An Accurate Forecast of Global Warming Made 112 Years Ago

More than a hundred years ago, an impressive forecast predicted that burning coal would lead to rising temperatures. On August 14, 1912, a newspaper from New Zealand reported that the world was using two billion tons of coal each year. It warned that the resulting carbon dioxide, absorbed by the atmosphere, would act like a blanket and raise Earth’s temperature “in a few centuries.” Today, this forecast resonates profoundly more quickly than expected. The early 20th-century warning highlighted CO₂ buildup, but recent data shows just how rapid the change has become and why urgent policy focus is needed now. Recent data indicates that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels increased from 421.1 ppm in 2023 to 424.6 ppm in 2024, marking an unprecedented jump. a record rise. This spike is fueled by high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, weakened carbon absorption from forests, and emissions from wildfires. The rate of increase over recent decades is nearly 100 times faster than historical natural changes, such as those marking the end of the last Ice Age. These shifts confirm that the early “blanket” prediction has become a pressing reality, not a distant future. Science has advanced significantly since then. The 1979 Charney Report confirmed CO₂-driven warming through computer climate models. Earlier, scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1896 estimated temperature changes based on rising CO₂. In 1972, meteorologist John S. Sawyer accurately predicted warming trends for the late 20th century. These scientific milestones built on that early 1912 insight, proving its strength. Yet, policies to limit greenhouse gases are still falling short. Nations worldwide have worked toward emission controls, but the persistent rise continues. Bangladesh and others now face escalating climate threats—floods, cyclones, and coastal erosion—making policy action essential. Effective approaches must include transitioning toward renewable energy, reducing reliance on fossil fuels, planting trees, and safeguarding natural carbon sinks. Forest protection and urban green space development also support CO₂ absorption. Around the world, it is essential for policymakers to enhance the use of carbon pricing and emissions regulations. Early predictions like the one in 1912 were warnings. Today’s data confirms they were accurate and more urgent than imagined. The policy implications are clear: only swift, large-scale action can prevent further dangerous warming. Legislation, incentives, and international cooperation are vital to slowing CO₂ growth and avoiding the scenario mentioned over a century ago. In summary, a 1912 forecast about coal emissions is no longer speculative. Measured increases in greenhouse gases and temperatures make it real. This historical insight, backed by modern science, sends a powerful policy message: the time to act is now. Governments must prioritize clean energy, restore forests, and adopt emissions-reduction strategies to ensure a livable future.